Solidifyの‌価格SOL

🎯$SOL resistance pressure builds as fading momentum signals downside continuation risk. Trading Plan SHORT: SOL Entry: 86 – 88 Stop-Loss: 93 TP1: 82 TP2: 76 TP3: 70 $SOL is testing resistance with momentum showing clear signs of exhaustion, as repeated upper wicks highlight active supply. The recent push lacks follow-through and intraday rebounds are being sold quicker, reinforcing a distribution-leaning structure. If sellers maintain control around this zone, price is likely to rotate lower toward the next support targets. Click and Trade $SOL here 👇$BTC $SOL

《2.26日行情分析：大V天龙，双底如何成真？》 一天跌10％，一天涨10％，B友们已经成了庄的形状了，昨天提到过能否反转都看小时线对于66500的抉择，这里上来后原本觉得6.8就差不多了，硬是拉到了7w附近。那么日线上这里的逻辑，日线的底部模型成立，那么是否有效就看趋势线上的66200附近后面来到后是否有足够的支撑。这样日线的模型有效性就得到了验证，后面再上看的高度就可以讨论到7.3-7.4附近。 $BTC 大饼的今日压力在69400附近，1小时线要有效收盘超过此位置，那么后面就还能冲高，先看到71500的压力。下方支撑在66200，再次来到这里就是检验日线模型底部有效性了。这里结合15分钟vegas通道去做会更好，即来到66200的时候又是通道的位置，又有底部模型的出现就可以做多了。 $SOL 今日的压力在91，小时线收线上此位置留意后面继续冲高到98的压力，98的压力才比较重要。下方81.8支撑。 $ETH 以太今日的压力在2096-2105之间，小时线收盘在2105以上留意可能还有冲高，下方支撑1930。 综上，大V天龙的行情，后面的模型有效性需要继续验证，后面如果再回调到关键支撑就要去留意是否有对应底部了。对应底部和反弹出现，那么日线的继续冲高才能指望！ 如果你看不懂行情，把握不准方向，欢迎加入科长。点击加入科长社群 （关注科长，每日为你带来最新的行情分析和精准插针点位，多空仅供B友参考思路，严格止损止盈。）

Solana (SOL) is facing a critical credibility test as of February 26, 2026. While the price has rebounded nearly 9% to trade above $82, underlying on-chain data reveals a sharp decline in conviction. Accumulation by long-term holders (wallets holding for 155+ days) has plummeted by 62.5% in just two weeks, falling from 1.5 million SOL to roughly 564,000 SOL. This "smart money" retreat is occurring just as Solana hits a massive 22.16 million SOL supply cluster between $82.81 and $83.79, where break-even sellers are waiting to exit. Unless buyers can flip the $82.91 resistance, SOL remains at risk of a 17% decline toward its $68.71 structural target. Conviction Crisis: Long-Term Accumulation Drops 62.5% A significant divergence has emerged between Solana’s short-term price recovery and the long-term positioning of its "strongest hands." HODLer Retreat: The HODLer Net Position Change metric shows that long-term investors are no longer buying the rebound with the same aggression seen earlier in the month. This 62.5% drop in accumulation suggests that experienced investors are skeptical of the rally's sustainability. Mid-Term Distribution: Mid-term holders (1–3 months) are also reducing their exposure, with their share of the total supply falling from 19.52% to 14.08% in the last 30 days. Many of these holders appear to be using the current bounce as an opportunity to exit rather than a signal to add to their positions. The 22 Million SOL Supply Wall: The $82.91 Resistance Solana’s path to a full recovery is currently blocked by a dense cluster of investors waiting to exit at their entry price. Cost Basis Cluster: Over 22.16 million SOL was accumulated in the $82.81–$83.79 range. This zone represents a major "break-even" point for retail traders who bought during previous dips. As the price approaches this level, these holders are likely to sell to recover their capital, creating a heavy overhead supply wall. Absorption Failure: With long-term holder buying down significantly, there is insufficient "smart money" demand to absorb the potential sell-off from this 22M SOL cluster, explaining why the rebound has already begun to stall near $82.91. Technical Outlook: Reclaiming $91.33 or Sliding to $68.71 The current 9% bounce has not yet invalidated the broader bearish head-and-shoulders structure that has dominated February. Downside Projection: If the $82.91 resistance remains unbroken, the projected target from the bearish pattern points to a further 17% decline toward $68.71. A break below the $80.89 support would quickly retest the recent local low of $74.96. Bullish Invalidation: To confirm a trend reversal, Solana must decisively clear the supply wall and break above $91.33. Only then would the prevailing bearish structure be fully neutralized, opening the door for a return to the $100 psychological threshold. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of a 62.5% drop in long-term holder accumulation and the 22.16 million SOL supply wall are based on on-chain data from Glassnode and market analysis as of February 26, 2026. Technical patterns like head-and-shoulders and cost-basis clusters are probabilistic and do not guarantee future performance. Solana remains an extremely volatile asset; the current price action reflects structural weakness, and a failure to hold the $80.89 support could lead to significant capital loss. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Solana or digital assets. Do you think the 22M SOL supply wall is too heavy for the bulls, or is the 62.5% drop in HODLer buying just a temporary pause?

Let’s break down why traders overtrade when the market goes nowhere, using real examples from different coins — and what’s actually happening in your head at that moment! 🔺1. The brain hates boredom more than losses When the market trends, life is simple:  • uptrend → buy pullbacks  • downtrend → sell rallies But in a range? Nothing happens. And the brain goes: “If nothing happens, maybe I should make something happen.” That’s where overtrading begins. 📉 Example: $BTC in a range BTC chops between two clear levels for weeks. No breakout. No breakdown. Instead of waiting, traders:  • scalp tiny moves,  • jump into fake breakouts,  • trade every candle that “looks promising”. Result: ❌ fees ❌ stress ❌ random outcomes 🔺 2. Sideways markets create the illusion of opportunity In ranges, price constantly:  • touches support,  • touches resistance,  • gives “almost” signals. Your brain interprets this as: “There are opportunities everywhere.” But most of them are noise, not setups. 📉 Example: $ETH chop zone ETH moves sideways after a strong trend. Indicators flip bullish → bearish → bullish. Traders:  • go long on RSI oversold,  • flip short on resistance,  • reverse again after one green candle. What’s really happening? They’re reacting, not executing a plan. Sideways markets punish:  • emotional entries,  • low-conviction trades,  • strategy-hopping. 🔺 3. Overtrading is often disguised as “being active” Many traders confuse activity with productivity. In sideways markets, doing nothing feels like:  • missing out,  • falling behind,  • being “bad at trading”. So they trade - not because the setup is good, but because: “A good trader should be trading, right?” 📉 Example: $SOL consolidation SOL moves in a tight range after volatility. You see:  • clean structure,  • no volume expansion,  • no trend confirmation. But traders still jump in because:  • “SOL always moves fast”  • “It’s about to break any minute” Sometimes it breaks. Most of the time - it doesn’t. 🔺 4. Sideways markets attack trader identity This is the uncomfortable part. When the market trends, traders feel:  • smart,  • confident,  • validated. When it ranges:  • strategy feels useless,  • confidence drops,  • doubt creeps in. Overtrading becomes a way to:  • prove competence,  • regain control,  • feel relevant again. Not trading feels like losing your identity. 🔺 5. Why sideways markets reward patience, not skill Here’s the paradox: Sideways markets don’t reward:  • better indicators,  • faster execution,  • more screen time. They reward:  • selectivity,  • restraint,  • emotional neutrality. 📌 Professional traders often:  • reduce position size,  • trade less,  • wait for confirmation. Retail traders usually do the opposite. ✅ The real edge in sideways markets If you take only one thing from this: Not every market phase is meant to be traded aggressively. Sometimes the best trade is: fewer trades, cleaner setups, more patience. Sideways markets are filters. They quietly remove traders who need action from those who wait for opportunity. And when the trend finally comes back - guess who still has capital, focus, and confidence?