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22:05
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March reaches 98%
ChainCatcher News, according to Golden Ten Data, CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 98%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 83.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 42.7%.
21:57
US Treasury Market Position Update: Bond Traders Bet on Fed Rate Cuts Continuing Until 2027
The futures spread linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has experienced a deep inversion, indicating that the market is pricing in a more prolonged monetary easing cycle. The debate over unemployment caused by artificial intelligence (AI) has shifted market expectations. On February 24, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook warned that the Fed may not be able to effectively counteract the rise in unemployment triggered by the widespread adoption of AI. The market believes that, aside from data center construction and energy demand, AI essentially has a deflationary effect, which has prompted a rebound in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
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