QCP Capital Market Update – 5 Apr 24

– The second quarter of 2024 has started with a whimper.
– BTC price sunk under 70k and has been stuck in a relatively tight range since.
– ETF flows have not been significant enough to catalyze price action in either direction.
– As a result, funding has flattened and the front-end of the forward curve has fallen from 50% highs to under 20% now.
– Interestingly enough, the back-end of the forward curve remains elevated and the desk has seen interest to roll spot – forward basis positions further out at as a result. This is possibly due to the continued demand for BTC long-dated calls out to 2025.
– This BTC topside demand along with some upward momentum in BTC spot ETF inflows should support BTC price and perhaps, even take BTC above 70k by the end of the week?
– ETH, on the other hand, remains soft. The ETHBTC cross is testing a critical support level after breaking below 0.05. There has been persistent large selling of ETH calls which has crushed vols and also put some downside pressure on price.
– Could this again be a very early signal of FOMO turning into fear in ETH as a proxy for Alts?

Trade ideas:
1. Sell Spot-Forward Basis but further out beyond June
2. Use our Tactical Hedging Facility to lock in big gains on Alts, especially locked up or vesting positions