Polymarket giant whales boost Trump's chances of victory, raising manipulation fears

On October 18, Cointelegraph reported that the behavior of top bettors on the Polymarket has raised concerns that the prediction market could be manipulated as the U.S. presidential election approaches. Former President Donald Trump's rising chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have been heavily influenced by Polymarket user “Fredi9999,” a large bettor with more than $20 million worth of pro-Trump wagers.

Alex Momot, founder and CEO of Peanut Trading, said Trump's widening lead has raised questions because it doesn't seem to be related to real-world events that could explain the shift in public perception.

Trump's odds have now risen to 60.2 percent on Polymarket. Analysts have noted that such market dynamics could affect public perceptions of the election outcome and emphasize the need to assess predictive market manipulation.