WSJ: Trump's lead on Polymarket may be a false impression caused by large bets, aimed at building momentum for Trump's influence

over the past two weeks, the probability of Donald Trump winning the November election on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket has increased significantly. As of Thursday, the platform's bettors believed that Trump had a 62% chance of winning, while Harris had a 38% chance. However, in early October, the two candidates were still evenly matched.

This surge may have been created by four Polymarket accounts, which collectively invested about $30 million in cryptocurrency to bet on Trump winning. Miguel Morel, CEO of blockchain analytics company Arkham Intelligence, said after reviewing the situation that he had good reason to believe that these four accounts belonged to the same entity.