Probability of 25BP Fed rate cut in November rises to 99.7% after NFP release

November 1: The probability that the Fed will cut 25 bps by November is 99.7%, the probability of keeping current rates unchanged is 0%, and the probability of cutting rates by 50 bps is 0.3%. The probability of keeping current rates unchanged by December is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 19.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 80.3%.

Before the release of non-farm payrolls, the probability that the Fed will cut 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, and the probability of keeping the current rate unchanged is 6.9%. The probability of keeping the current rate unchanged by December is 5.2 per cent, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 94.8 per cent.