Solana Outshines Ethereum in Q3-Q4, Yet Fails to Reclaim $200

Solana (SOL) has faced a challenging price trend recently, with its decline halting, but the altcoin is struggling to reclaim $200 as support. 

This difficulty persists despite Solana surpassing Ethereum in demand over the past few months, highlighting a disconnect between interest and price action.  

Solana Is Doing Better Than Ethereum

Solana’s demand has been outpacing Ethereum, as evidenced by the Hot Realized Cap metric. According to a Glassnode report, SOL’s Hot Realized Cap reached $9.5 billion this week, more than double Ethereum’s $4.1 billion. This indicates sustained investor interest and increased activity within the Solana network.  

“When comparing the magnitude of new capital entering the asset between Solana and Ethereum, we can observe that new investor demand for Solana, for the first time in history, has overtaken Ethereum, highlighting its strong demand profile. Notably, the stark uptick in Hot Realized Cap for Solana before the start of 2024 marked the upward inflexion point in the SOL / ETH ratio, with the influx of new capital driving growth,” Glassnode noted.

Solana Hot Realized Cap. Source:  Glassnode

Solana’s macro momentum presents a mixed outlook. The change in realized cap for SOL grew by only 2.19%, significantly lower than Bitcoin’s 10.87% and Ethereum’s 5.43%. This disparity highlights a faster loss of momentum for Solana compared to the two largest cryptocurrencies.  

This slower growth in realized cap points to a bearish short-term outlook, suggesting that Solana’s network activity has not kept pace with its rising demand. For SOL to regain stronger momentum, it would require a resurgence in realized cap growth and broader market support.  

Solana Realized Cap. Source:  Glassnode

SOL Price Prediction: Resistance Ahead

Solana’s price is currently struggling to reclaim $200 as support, standing at $185 at the time of writing. This aligns with the bearish short-term outlook, indicating that SOL may continue to face resistance in breaking above the key psychological level.  

Hovering above its $175 support level, Solana remains in a precarious position. Losing this support could expose the altcoin to a correction, with $155 emerging as the next significant support level. Such a decline would deepen the bearish sentiment and delay any recovery attempts.

Solana Price Analysis. Source:  TradingView

However, positive market cues could enable Solana to flip $200 into support, invalidating the bearish thesis. Achieving this milestone could trigger a rally toward $221 or higher, restoring confidence in the cryptocurrency’s upward trajectory. Sustained demand and broader market optimism would be key drivers for this scenario.