BNP Paribas: Fed rate cuts may be delayed until mid-2026

On February 17th,analysts at Paris Bank Markets 360 predict that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates until mid-2026. They have held this view since early December last year. Their forecast is partly based on expectations for tariffs, but recent news suggests they may have to raise their initial estimate for tariffs. This has made analysts more confident in their inflation expectations, which are already higher than market consensus. The currency market currently expects the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in September.