Arthur Hayes declares 'buy everything' as US-China trade war cools and bitcoin crosses $104,000

Negotiations in Geneva last week proved fruitful as Beijing cut duties on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% and Washington decreased tolls on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%. Both reductions are valid for 90 days and come into effect from May 14, according to an official White House statement .

In response, the cryptocurrency market capitalization notched a modest 1% rise, with Bitcoin over $104,100 and Ether at $2,500, per price data from The Block . Top altcoins like XRP and ADA traded in green, as the GMCI 30 Index grew over 2%.

Futures tied to the SP 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 rallied upwards of 2% in U.S. pre-market hours. Conversely, gold, which recently made fresh highs, was down 3% according to Yahoo Finance .

Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes shared his bullish sentiment on crypto as trade-war tensions between China and the United States ease, posting on X that traders should "buy everything."

"For crypto, this reduction in trade tensions supports a risk-on environment," Dr Kirill Kretov, senior automation expert at CoinPanel, told The Block. "Lower tariffs ease inflationary pressures and improve global liquidity conditions, both of which are typically bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies."

Price optimism

The U.S.-China tariff agreement adds to an improving macro landscape from last week, which served to bolster digital assets.

President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom, while the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said national banks can buy and sell customers’ crypto on their behalf . The OCC added that banks can custody crypto assets with third parties, a move that could encourage greater institutional participation.

Bitcoin surged past $100,000 following the updates. Ether also experienced its largest daily uptick in four years, bolstered by the positive macro outlook and a bug-free Pectra upgrade .

Although BTC and ETH saw substantial price gains at the time, volatility for both cryptocurrencies remained around the same level. That has changed, especially for Ethereum, said Dr. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive.xyz. According to The Block’s data, BTC’s 7-day volatility rose mildly from 37% to 42%. Dawson said the chart signaled “a gradual market movement” for Bitcoin.

“ETH volatility, on the other hand, has surged dramatically from 52% to nearly 90%, before stabilizing just over 80%,” Derive’s Head of Research wrote in a May 12 note. “This indicates that ETH is expected to experience far more explosive price movements.”

Additionally, Dawson noted improved odds of ETH revisiting the $4,000 range and outperforming BTC. He also said $150,000 was a sensible BTC target in 2025, but stressed that $200,000 was not impossible.

“The market is showing renewed optimism, and volatility suggests that BTC and ETH are positioned for significant movements in the months ahead. With institutional adoption growing and macroeconomic factors stabilizing, the outlook remains bullish for the remainder of the year,” Dawson remarked.