Bitcoin starts third quarter pressured by macroeconomic uncertainties

• Bitcoin range limited between $100 and $110
• High leverage fell after forced deleveraging
• Market awaits clear signal from Fed on interest rates

The third quarter has started subdued for bitcoin, historically the worst-performing period for the cryptocurrency, with average gains below 6% since 2013. According to analysts at Bitfinex, the asset is stuck between $100.000 and $110.000, with no clear catalysts in the macroeconomic environment to drive a new high.

Macro tailwind crucial for bitcoin during historically soft start to Q3, analysts say

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The analysis points out that the increase in leverage during June caused a 7,2% drop in futures open interest, falling from 360.000 BTC to 334.000 BTC. Bitfinex defined this move as a “forced deleveraging,” which reduced excess positions in the market. For the analysts, the expectation is that fluctuations beyond the current range will be isolated during the quarter.

Uncertainty is also fueled by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s still cautious stance, which reinforces his commitment to fighting inflation. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are adding further pressure to markets. With spot demand weakened and on-chain activity reduced, the data resembles, according to Glassnode’s analysis, a “ghost town.”

Nicolai Søndergaard, from data firm Nansen, stressed that the main point of attention is interest rate policy in the US. For him, a clearer shift towards interest rate cuts could change market sentiment and favor risk assets. “We are not yet in a position where we can comfortably predict the direction of the market and we are at the mercy of geopolitical developments and the decisions of the US market,” he said.

The Fed’s latest dot plot suggests only one or two rate cuts in 2025. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation remains at 3%, helping to keep policymakers divided.

Meanwhile, bitcoin hovered near $107.500 on Tuesday, reflecting a market without strong direction, with traders waiting for new economic signals that could unlock the asset's current sideways movement.