Analysis: Powell Has Effectively Yielded, September Rate Cut Is a Foregone Conclusion

According to a report by Jinse Finance, The Kobeissi Letter has released its latest market analysis, stating that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has effectively conceded, and the Fed will cut interest rates in a month, attributing the move to a "weakening labor market." Meanwhile, the PPI inflation rate has reached its highest level in three years, and the CPI inflation rate has remained above 2% for 53 consecutive months. To better understand what is happening, it is essential to first grasp the Fed's responsibilities: the Fed aims to reduce unemployment and avoid inflation/deflation—this is the Fed's "dual mandate." Since 2021, the Fed has been highly focused on inflation. However, in his speech on Friday, Chairman Powell made a significant shift: "A change in the balance of risks may require us to adjust our policy stance." In other words, the Fed now sees the risk of unemployment as greater than that of inflation, which all but confirms that a rate cut is imminent.