Bitcoin investors are gripped by anxiety as the cryptocurrency’s value threatens to plunge toward $80,000, with both market signals and blockchain data indicating a wave of capitulation. The Fear and Greed Index, a widely watched gauge of sentiment,
dropped to 16 on Friday
, approaching its lowest point since early March and reflecting a sharp move toward fear as many anticipate further declines. Bitcoin’s price has slipped below $100,000 for the first time since June 22, and more than 88% of open positions are long—an imbalance now considered highly overbought
based on market assessments
.
The downturn has been intensified by significant withdrawals from U.S.-listed
Bitcoin
exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
According to CoinDesk
, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows totaling $870 million on Thursday, marking the second-largest single-day exit since their inception.
Ether
ETFs also experienced $259.7 million in outflows, adding to the downward momentum. These redemptions
reflect a broader shift away from risk
, as both Bitcoin and ether are trading at discounts of 2.8% and 2.3%, respectively, while alternative coins such as
Solana
and
XRP
have also seen sharp declines.
Blockchain data further confirms the bearish sentiment.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index
, which tracks market optimism, has plunged from 80 in early October—when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000—to just 20 as of Thursday. Three main factors have fueled the decline:
the “Big Liquidation” event
on October 10 that erased upward momentum, a drop in spot demand since October 8, and a slowdown in the growth of stablecoin liquidity. Long-term holders (LTHs) have
sold 815,000 BTC
over the past month, the highest volume since January 2024, further reinforcing the negative outlook.
Technical signals point to a pivotal moment. Bitcoin has closed below its 365-day moving average ($102,000) several times since October,
a level that has historically provided support
during this bull run. Experts caution that failing to recover this threshold could lead to a more significant correction.
The 50-week SMA
, another important indicator, is now in danger of breaking the two-year uptrend that has characterized Bitcoin’s rally since 2023.
Traders are also preparing for the possibility of a confirmed bear market.
10X Research observed
that weakening ETF inflows, persistent selling by long-term holders, and subdued retail activity are all consistent with bearish market conditions. Meanwhile,
Bitcoin’s 30-day options delta skew
on Deribit remains at 10%, above the neutral 6% but well below the 16% high seen in early November, indicating ongoing but not extreme fear.
The downturn in the crypto market is not limited to Bitcoin.
Ethereum is encountering resistance
at its 200-day exponential moving average ($3,660), with major investors accumulating ETH despite falling prices.
A prominent Ethereum whale
has acquired $1.38 billion worth of ETH in the last 10 days, using borrowed capital to increase its holdings. However,
spot Ethereum ETFs
have posted net outflows, indicating that institutional funds may be rotating into Bitcoin.
With the bearish trend strengthening,
analysts are monitoring
for signs of widespread capitulation. Research from CryptoQuant noted that
short-term holders (STHs)
have suffered losses of 12.79%, approaching a threshold where panic selling could intensify. The cost basis for holders in the 6–12 month range is near $94,000, which might provide temporary support, but a decisive break below this level could signal a more extensive market downturn.