The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is fifty-fifty, with inflation remaining the main risk.

ChainCatcher News, according to Golden Ten Data, T.Rowe Price's Chief U.S. Economist Blerina Uruci stated that due to significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to cut interest rates, coupled with concerns about inflation, the probability of a rate cut in December is roughly "fifty-fifty." Uruci pointed out that AI-related capital expenditures have already significantly boosted U.S. economic growth for 2025, but inflation remains a major risk, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut rates at all next year.