PENGU Price Forecast: Does the Latest Rally Present a Smart Investment or Signal an Overheated Market?

The token, a associated with the NFT ecosystem, has recently undergone significant price swings, leading to discussions about its long-term viability. As of November 2025, the token has dropped 30.5% over the last week, fluctuating between $0.01454 and $0.01666 . Yet, a 12.8% jump within 24 hours—spurred by Bitcoin’s recovery and a broader altcoin uptrend—has renewed trader interest. This article explores whether this rally signals a real buying window or simply speculative hype, examining technical signals, market sentiment, and blockchain data.

Technical Analysis: Unstable Ground

PENGU’s recent price movement highlights a battle between bullish and bearish sentiment. The token has repeatedly tested the $0.01454 support level, with

as it neared this threshold. This could indicate that downward momentum is waning, but the tight trading range between $0.01454 and $0.01666 shows indecision in the market. For a meaningful rebound, PENGU needs to stay above $0.01454 and break past the $0.01666 resistance.

Short-term technicals present a mixed outlook. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) and MACD have shown upward momentum on hourly timeframes,

. However, the broader trend remains negative: OBV has been falling for more than a month, and . A major concern is near $0.016, which could lead to further declines if reclaimed.

Trader Sentiment: Contradictory Signals During Altcoin Surge

Market sentiment for PENGU is sharply divided. The recent 12.8% rally, triggered by Bitcoin’s 4.3% climb to $106.1k, has

to $202 million. This points to renewed retail enthusiasm, especially as the wider altcoin sector (excluding Ethereum) during the same timeframe. Still, this optimism is offset by ongoing bearish trends. PENGU has fallen 28.5% from its October 27 high, and indicate continued downward pressure.

Large holders add further complexity.

, which could help establish a price floor. However, and unclear NVT ratios make it difficult for investors to gauge fair value. The token’s speculative character is highlighted by its dependence on NFT market activity, such as the October 10 liquidation event that even as the floor price dropped by 28%.

On-Chain Metrics: Conflicting Stories

Blockchain data offers a complex view. While PENGU’s 24-hour trading volume hit $202 million,

when compared to leading ETF benchmarks. Outflows from exchanges totaling $9.4 million in Q4 2025 hint at institutional buying, but this could also reflect bearish bets as to exchanges in the same period.

A key issue is the overlap between PENGU’s data and the

protocol’s $8.75B TVL in Q3 2025, making it hard to assess PENGU’s individual performance. Furthermore, , which would link the token with Pudgy Penguins NFTs, could attract institutional interest but depends on regulatory developments, such as the EU’s MiCA framework and U.S. SEC policy changes.

Strategic Outlook: High Risk, High Potential

PENGU’s future price action will be shaped by three main factors:
1. Ongoing Buying Momentum: A breakout above $0.01666 and a retest of the 78.6% Fibonacci level could

.
2. Regulatory Shifts: (such as the U.S. GENIUS Act) could either legitimize PENGU or increase its volatility.
3. Utility Within the Ecosystem: The “Pudgy Party” mobile game, launched in August 2025, brought real-world use cases but has yet to .

Given the token’s high-risk nature, investors should proceed with caution. While short-term indicators and large holder accumulation suggest upside potential, the speculative environment of memecoins and PENGU’s fragile liquidity present notable dangers. A prudent strategy would be to watch key resistance points ($0.01666, $0.0235) and monitor on-chain outflows, using

to limit losses.

Conclusion

PENGU’s latest rally is a mix of technical promise and speculative excitement. While the TD Sequential buy signal and short-term OBV/MACD strength point to a possible bounce, the token’s weak fundamentals—declining OBV, unclear NVT ratios, and regulatory ambiguity—remain significant concerns. At present, PENGU serves as a leveraged bet on the memecoin narrative, offering the chance for high returns but also carrying considerable risk. Investors should treat it as a highly volatile asset and focus on risk management rather than aggressive exposure.