Exchange DeepThink: Crypto Market Enters "Low Liquidity Game," Decline May Be Nearing End but Risk Appetite Needs Recovery

BlockBeats News, November 24, DeepThink column author and Research analyst Chloe from a certain exchange pointed out that this week, ahead of the US holiday, the market is characterized by a "dense data release," with several key economic indicators set to be announced from Monday to Wednesday. High-frequency employment data (especially Wednesday's initial jobless claims) will be a key factor influencing risk appetite. The crypto market is still digesting the correction since October, with bitcoin down about 30% from its peak, continued net outflows from ETFs, and weakening premiums on certain exchanges, keeping overall sentiment at a low level. Although expectations of "ending balance sheet reduction + early rate cuts" support the medium-term outlook, the current stage is closer to a rebalancing phase before a liquidity shift, with institutional positions mainly focused on reducing holdings and hedging.

Derivatives pricing reflects a defensive market stance: CME BTC futures premium has fallen below 4%, term structure is flattening; short-term implied volatility is higher than longer maturities; 25-delta put skew is negative across all maturities; IV rises in tandem with price declines.

Overall, the decline phase may be nearing its end, but risk appetite has not yet recovered. If this week's consumer and employment data show a moderate weakening, the market may see a technical rebound; if the data is strong and suppresses rate cut expectations, a short-term pullback could still be triggered given the weaker holiday liquidity. Analysis suggests that the area around $80,000 may be an observation range for mid- to long-term allocation demand.