FedWatch Odds: 25bp Rate Cut 24.4% in January 2026, 75.6% Likely to Hold as US November Payrolls and Unemployment Data Arrive

Tonight, before the US jobs report, CME’s FedWatch indicates a 24.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January, with a 75.6% probability of keeping policy unchanged. The data reinforce expectations around the Fed policy path and FOMC timing, shaping risk sentiment across crypto markets.

For March expectations, the odds of holding rates through the period sit at 49%, with a cumulative 25bp cut probability of 42.4% and a 50bp cut probability of 8.6%. Markets will scrutinize the next two FOMC meetings on January 28 and March 18, 2026 for any shifts in forward guidance.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the November nonfarm payrolls data and the unemployment rate tonight at 21:30 (UTC+8). The expected print is 4 (thousand) payrolls and an unemployment rate of 4.40%, data that could redefine risk asset trajectories, including crypto.