U.S. Treasury volatility may record the largest annual decline since 2009

BlockBeats News, December 30, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts effectively alleviating the risk of economic recession, a key indicator measuring the volatility of the US bond market is heading toward its largest annual decline since the global financial crisis. As of last Friday, the ICE BofA MOVE Index (reflecting expected bond market volatility) had dropped to around 59, the lowest point since October 2024. The index has been declining steadily from about 99 at the end of 2024 and is expected to record one of the most significant annual drops since data began in 1988, second only to the sharp decline in 2009.