Analysis: On-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin may have bottomed out in November and still has significant upside potential

BlockBeats News, January 6th, On-chain data provider Glassnode pointed out that a key indicator shows that when Bitcoin dropped to around $80,000 in late November last year, it may have formed a phase or even cyclical bottom.

Data shows that on November 24th, the short-term holders (holding period less than 155 days) "Profit Supply / Loss Supply" ratio dropped to 0.013. Historically, whenever this indicator touched this level, it corresponded to significant market bottoms, including in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022.

At that time, the short-term holders' loss supply surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse; while the profit supply was only about 30,000 BTC. By early 2026, Bitcoin rebounded to around $94,000, with a cumulative gain of over 7%. During the same period, the short-term holders' loss supply fell to 1.9 million BTC, and the profit supply rose to 850,000 BTC, bringing the ratio to about 0.45.

Glassnode pointed out that historically, when this ratio approaches 1 and breaks through, Bitcoin often enters a sustained uptrend, and the true top usually occurs when the ratio approaches 100. The current indicator is still far below this level, implying that Bitcoin still has significant upside potential ahead.