CPI Comes in Cooler — But the Fed Still Isn’t Cutting Anytime Soon

- US December CPI matched forecasts, with core inflation slightly cooler at 0.2% MoM, briefly boosting equity futures before fading.

- Sticky shelter costs (0.4% MoM, 3.2% YoY) remain the primary inflationary drag, anchoring Fed caution despite goods disinflation progress.

- Tariff-sensitive categories showed mixed price trends, with markets bracing for potential 2026 price hikes amid global supply chain uncertainties.

- Rate-cut expectations remain tied to mid-2026 (June), as Fed prioritizes sustained disinflation proof over isolated data points.