Retail confidence drives up trans-Pacific container shipping prices

Trans-Pacific Container Rates Rise Amid Growing Retail Confidence

Shipping costs for containers traveling eastbound across the Pacific have been climbing, suggesting that U.S. retailers may be feeling more positive about replenishing their inventories.

According to Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO), spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast jumped by 5%, reaching $2,757 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Meanwhile, rates for shipments from Asia to the U.S. East Coast rose 7% to $4,033 per FEU.

Freightos analyst Judah Levine noted that these rate increases are happening earlier than is typical for the period leading up to Lunar New Year. However, they align with the latest ocean import forecasts from the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The NRF anticipates that January import volumes will be 6% higher than in December, marking the first month-over-month rise since July.

Despite this uptick, Levine pointed out that volumes are still expected to be 5% lower than the previous January, with year-over-year declines likely to persist through April as economic uncertainty continues to affect the U.S. market.

The NRF’s January outlook also predicts stronger import volumes for 2026 compared to last month’s forecast, indicating that importers may be gaining confidence in post-holiday restocking.

Elsewhere, rates from Asia to Northern Europe slipped by 1% to $2,978 per FEU, while prices for Asia-Mediterranean routes held steady at $4,851 per FEU.

Levine observed that current rates have returned to levels last seen during the 2025 peak season. Increased demand ahead of Lunar New Year is supporting January’s general rate hikes, and carriers are adding capacity to accommodate the higher volumes.

“This seasonal surge in demand began earlier than usual and may have already peaked, as daily rates have started to ease slightly this week,” Levine explained. He also mentioned that some carriers have announced mid-month general rate increases (GRIs), targeting $4,000 per FEU for Europe and over $5,500 per FEU for Mediterranean routes. Severe weather in Europe has disrupted operations at several major ports, which could contribute to further rate increases.