Analyst: Bitcoin price is approaching the short-term holders’ cost basis, and the trend is expected to become clearer after increased volatility.

BlockBeats News, January 17, Crypto Quant analyst Axel published an article stating that the price of bitcoin (currently $95,500) is approaching the average purchase cost of short-term holders ($99,460), with the gap between the two narrowing to just 4%.

Axel explained that the current situation is a decision zone rather than a market collapse. Historically, areas near the cost benchmark are often accompanied by increased volatility and become zones of market reaction, which may either continue the trend or trigger a reversal—either returning to a premium state or facing a new round of selling pressure.

If the price stabilizes above $100,000 and short-term holders turn profitable, the outlook will shift back to bullish. If the discount rate returns to double digits (below -10%), corresponding to a price drop below about $89,500, it will significantly increase the pressure on loss-holding positions.