"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Comparing the current bitcoin trend to 2022 is utterly absurd

According to Odaily, "1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on X, stating that recent analysts comparing the current BTC price trend to that of 2022 is completely absurd. The underlying logic is fundamentally different in terms of long-term price patterns, macroeconomic background, investor composition, and supply/holding structure.

1. Macroeconomic background: In March 2022, the United States was experiencing high inflation and an interest rate hike cycle, with capital prioritizing risk avoidance. The current macro environment is the opposite: CPI and the US risk-free rate are declining, the AI technological revolution has increased the likelihood of the economy entering a long-term deflationary cycle, interest rates have entered a rate-cutting phase, and capital behavior is characterized by risk appetite.

2. Technical structure: The 2021-2022 period formed a weekly M-top structure, whereas the current situation is a break below the weekly ascending channel, which is more likely to be a bear trap before rebounding back into the channel. There has been significant consolidation and turnover in the $62,000 to $80,850 range, providing better risk-reward for bullish positions.

3. Investor structure: From 2020 to 2022, the market was dominated by retail investors. Since 2023, the launch of BTC ETF has introduced structurally long-term holders, locking up supply and significantly reducing volatility. BTC volatility has shifted from a historical 80%-150% to 30%-60%. The biggest difference between the current period (originally stated as early 2026) and the 2022 BTC investor structure is that the market has shifted from retail-driven high-leverage speculation to institutionally dominated structural long-term holding.