Whale Garrett Jin: The current bitcoin market is fundamentally different from 2022; it is too early to be bearish now.

PANews reported on January 19 that the suspected "1011 Insider Whale" Garrett Jin posted on X, stating that comparing the current bitcoin market to that of 2022 is highly unprofessional. He believes that from the perspectives of long-term price structure, macroeconomic background, investor composition, and chip distribution, there are fundamental differences between the two.

• He pointed out that the current macro environment is completely opposite to the high inflation and interest rate hike cycle of 2022: the situation in Ukraine is easing, CPI and risk-free rates are declining, and especially the AI technological revolution is likely to drive the economy into a long-term deflationary cycle. Interest rates have entered a rate-cutting phase, and central bank liquidity is returning to the financial system, which defines capital's risk appetite behavior. Since 2020, bitcoin has shown a clear negative correlation with year-on-year changes in CPI, and under the AI-driven technological revolution, long-term deflation is a highly probable outcome.
• In terms of technical structure, 2021-2022 was a weekly-level M-top structure, while 2025 is a breakout from an upward channel, which probabilistically is more likely to be a "bear trap" before a rebound. He noted that to replicate a 2022-style bear market, it would require the simultaneous occurrence of renewed inflation shocks, central banks restarting rate hikes or quantitative tightening, and a decisive price break below $80,850—stringent conditions. It is too early to be bearish before these conditions are met.
• Regarding investor structure, 2020-2022 was a retail-driven, high-leverage speculative market, whereas since the launch of the bitcoin ETF in 2023, structural long-term holders have entered the market, effectively locking up supply and significantly reducing trading speed and volatility. Bitcoin has shifted from a historical volatility of 80-150% to a range of 30-60%, becoming a fundamentally different asset. The current market has entered a more mature institutionalized era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and institutional-level volatility.