Polymarket data shows that only 17% of users predict the European tariff threat will take effect

According to Polymarket data, only 17% of users believe that all tariffs threatened by Trump against Europe will take effect on February 1, reflecting the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading strategy, where investors bet that Trump will ultimately back down from the tariff threats. Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank stated that there is still greater volatility potential in the market, and mentioned that the market has previously suffered losses due to overreacting to tariff threats. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan believes the market is behaving rationally, and bond investors do not seem to be taking these threats too seriously.