AUD and NZD under focus as global economic trends and commodity connections come into play – Rabobank

How Commodity Ties Influence the NZD and AUD

Historically, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the Australian Dollar (AUD) have been considered 'riskier' currencies due to their strong connections with commodity markets. These currencies often strengthen when global economic prospects are positive and weaken during periods of uncertainty, according to Jane Foley, an FX analyst at Rabobank.

Commodity Exports Help Stabilize AUD and NZD

Shifting geopolitical dynamics could alter this traditional relationship. Australia, in addition to being a significant gold exporter, is increasingly important in the rare earths sector. Both Australia and New Zealand also saw robust food export performance in 2025, with food demand potentially remaining more stable than other commodities, depending on global political developments.

Despite these factors, the overall health of the global economy will continue to play a key role in shaping the direction of both currencies. At present, there is a possibility that both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may resist market expectations for interest rate increases. The RBA is set to meet on February 3, and if their tone is less aggressive than anticipated, it could create challenges for both the AUD and NZD.

The RBNZ will hold its next meeting on February 18. As a result, there may be short-term declines in both AUD/USD and NZD/USD in the near future. However, any pullbacks toward AUD/USD 0.66 and NZD/USD 0.57 could present attractive buying opportunities, with both currency pairs expected to recover as the year progresses.