Analysis suggests bitcoin price may face risk of prolonged consolidation

Analysis institutions such as Glassnode have pointed out that the current price structure of bitcoin is rather fragile and may enter a prolonged consolidation phase. At present, bitcoin's price is confined within a wide range between the short-term holders' cost basis of $98,400 and the realized market value of $81,100. If key support levels are not effectively reclaimed, the market may see a repeat of the long-term consolidation pattern observed in the first quarter of 2022. On-chain data shows that there is a dense supply zone above $100,000, and persistent selling pressure may limit price breakthroughs at the $98,400 and $100,000 levels. The risk indicator has risen to 21, approaching the high-risk zone, indicating that the current macro environment carries significant risk. In addition, spot bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of $708.7 million on Wednesday—the largest single-day outflow in two months and the fifth largest since their launch in January 2024. Analysts believe this reflects institutions significantly reducing their risk exposure. If the $84,000 support level is lost, the price may decline further.