Analysis: Despite the recent strong demand for call options, asymmetric downside risks continue to be reflected

PANews, January 23 – According to analysis by Glassnode, during the mid-January bitcoin rally, the one-week 25D skew was pulled from a deeply bearish zone towards neutral. Over the same period, the put/call ratio for options trading volume dropped from 1 to 0.4, indicating strong bullish activity. The key issue is not whether call options are being bought, but rather how short-lived this demand actually is. Longer-term skews present a different picture: the one-month 25D skew only moved from a low of 7% to 4%, still within a bearish asymmetry range; the three-month 25D skew changed by less than 1.5% and remains firmly in bearish territory. Despite the recent surge in demand for call options, there continues to be a reflection of asymmetric downside risk. This difference suggests that the demand for upside is real but concentrated in the short term. Trading volume exists, but risk has not been repriced across all maturities.

At the same time, the implied volatility of at-the-money options was sold during the price increase, with gamma sellers taking profits as the market rose. This volatility behavior is not typical of a sustainable breakout trend. An ideal breakout would require the spot price to approach key levels, skews across all maturities to firmly point higher, and volatility to be bought; last week's movement did not meet these conditions.