Analysis: Bitcoin is negatively correlated with Japan's 10-year government bonds; if the Bank of Japan stabilizes government bonds, it may drive a Bitcoin rebound

BlockBeats News, January 23, Delphi Digital published an article stating, "Bitcoin prices have stagnated, while gold continues to rise. The reason may lie in Japanese government bonds. Typically, rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, thus putting pressure on gold. But when gold and yields rise simultaneously, the market is actually pricing in policy pressure and balance sheet fragility, rather than economic growth.

The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds is currently about 3.65 standard deviations above the long-term average. The Bank of Japan structurally holds long-term bonds and is deeply exposed to Japanese government bonds in both assets and collateral.

Gold is absorbing this pressure, while Bitcoin is negatively correlated with Japan's 10-year government bonds, and in the longer term, as Japanese yields rise, Bitcoin's performance has continued to struggle. If the Bank of Japan intervenes to stabilize the government bond market, the risk premium in gold may ease, and Bitcoin will also have room to rebound."