Commodity Recap – January’s Leading and Lagging Markets

January 2026 Commodities Overview: Major Winners and Losers

January 2026 saw significant double-digit gains across the commodities sector, with precious metals initially leading the charge. However, a sharp downturn on January 30 erased much of those advances. Energy commodities also performed strongly, while cocoa futures stood out as the biggest loser, tumbling by over 30%.

Precious Metals: Soaring to New Heights Before a Sharp Decline

Silver futures climbed by 11.23% in January, gold advanced 9.31%, and platinum and palladium increased by 4.28% and 3.13%, respectively. These metals reached their highest levels on January 29, only to experience a dramatic reversal the following day, with prices for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all dropping sharply.

Silver and Gold: Record Peaks and Sudden Drops

March COMEX silver futures soared to an all-time high of $121.785 per ounce on January 29, then plunged below $85, closing at $78.531 the next day. Despite an 11.23% monthly gain, silver—along with gold, platinum, and palladium—faced a steep correction at month’s end.

April gold futures also set a new record, reaching $5,626.80 on January 29.

On January 30, April COMEX gold futures dropped to $4,745.10 per ounce, a decline of over $880 from the previous day’s peak. Gold still finished January up 9.31%, but the month ended on a bearish note for the precious metals sector.

Platinum and palladium futures rose by 4.28% and 3.13%, respectively. April NYMEX platinum futures hit a record $2,925.00 per ounce on January 26, then settled at $2,121.60 on January 30. Nearby March NYMEX platinum futures peaked at $2,195.50 before closing at $1,703.10 on the same day.

In summary, after a dramatic rally, precious metals experienced a sharp reversal on the final day of January 2026.

Energy Markets: Strong Recovery Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Natural gas led the energy sector higher in January, driven by cold weather across the U.S. that boosted heating demand.

March NYMEX natural gas futures surged by 39.11% during the month.

WTI and Brent crude oil futures each gained nearly 14%. Gasoline and heating oil futures also rallied, with respective increases of 11.52% and 20.42%.

Gasoline underperformed crude oil due to seasonal factors, resulting in lower gasoline crack spreads. In contrast, heating oil outpaced crude, leading to higher distillate refining spreads. Chicago ethanol swaps edged up slightly, and Rotterdam coal futures advanced by almost 10% in January.

Industrial Metals: Copper Hits New Highs, Lumber Steadies

COMEX copper futures rose 4.26% in January, closing at $5.9240 per pound. On January 29, March copper futures reached a record $6.5830 before correcting below $6 the next day, reflecting heightened volatility in the metals market at month’s end.

Lumber futures gained 3.30% in January, settling at $595 per 1,000 board feet for the active March 2026 contract. Despite being in the off-season for construction, expectations of lower interest rates in 2026 helped support lumber prices.

Soft Commodities and Animal Proteins: Mixed Performance

Soft commodities remained turbulent, with four out of five sector members posting losses in January. Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) rose 4.92%, while cocoa futures led declines with a 31.33% drop. Arabica coffee fell 4.44%, world sugar futures slipped 4.93%, and cotton futures declined by 1.71%.

After seasonal price corrections in November, cattle and hog prices rebounded in January. April live cattle futures increased by 2.25%, March feeder cattle futures rose 4.33%, and April lean hog futures led the meat sector with an 11.81% gain for the month ending January 30, 2026.

Grain markets were mixed: March corn futures dropped 2.73%, while March soybean and wheat futures gained 1.60% and 6.11%, respectively. Ongoing uncertainty about the 2026 crop year supported bean and wheat prices.

Financial Markets: Cryptocurrencies and Dollar Weaken, Stocks Edge Up

Major cryptocurrencies declined in January, with Bitcoin down 4.22% and Ethereum falling 9.83%. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, slipped 1.21%. U.S. long bond futures edged down by 0.22%. These mixed signals from the dollar and bonds added uncertainty to commodity pricing.

The S&P 500, the broadest U.S. stock market index, managed a modest 0.66% gain in January.

Looking Ahead: February 2026 and Beyond

As February begins, commodities remain in the midst of winter, with seasonal trends favoring continued strength in natural gas and potential weakness in meats and gasoline. Volatility is expected to persist in NYMEX natural gas futures in the coming weeks. As spring approaches, anticipate increased volatility in gasoline and meat markets with the onset of the driving and grilling seasons.

Keep a close watch on metals, as gold, silver, and copper continue to show long-term bullish momentum, though the sharp moves on January 30 highlight the potential for extreme price swings. The ongoing erosion of fiat currency purchasing power remains a supportive factor for metals. As noted previously, rapid gains have increased the likelihood of corrections.

The stock market’s upward trend continues, but economic and geopolitical uncertainties present ongoing challenges. The likelihood of a lower Fed Funds Rate may rise following President Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, replacing Jerome Powell.

Prepare for continued volatility in the commodities sector throughout February 2026 and beyond to avoid being caught off guard.