Major Bank Ratings | Macquarie: Raises ZTO Express U.S. stock target price from $18.4, optimistic about continued improvement in unit economics

Glonghui, February 9th｜Macquarie released a research report stating that ZTO Express delivered a strong performance in the last quarter of last year, with growth leading the industry. According to its preliminary results, parcel volume increased by 9% year-on-year; revenue grew between 8% and 19% year-on-year, and gross profit margin was in the range of 23% to 28%. The bank believes that under the policy environment of "anti-involution" in the logistics industry, combined with ZTO's high-quality and cost-effective value positioning, the group is well-positioned to capture shifts in customer price preferences. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank forecasts ZTO's total parcel volume to grow by 8% annually, compared to the expected industry growth rate of 7%. With industry pricing recovery and favorable strategies for key clients and return retail, the average unit price is expected to increase by 0.02 yuan year-on-year to 1.28 yuan. It is also believed that after bottoming out last year, driven by both expanded scale effects and the rise in average unit price, unit economic efficiency should continue to improve.