Shopify expects revenue growth in the first quarter of 2026

Shopify expects its revenue to grow in the first quarter of 2026, continuing the momentum of across-the-board growth in merchants, regions, and sales channels seen in the fourth quarter.

The commerce platform company, which supports online shops and retail businesses, said Wednesday that it expects its first-quarter 2026 revenue to grow at a rate just above 30%, continuing the growth momentum of the fourth quarter. According to financial data provider FactSet, analysts expect revenue to rise from $2.36 billion in the first quarter of 2025 to $2.95 billion, an increase of about 25%.

In 2025, Shopify's revenue grew to $11.56 billion; analysts expect it to rise to $14.26 billion, an increase of about 23.4%.

The company expects gross profit to grow at a rate close to 30%, with operating expenses remaining around 37% to 38% of revenue.

The free cash flow margin is expected to be in the range of 10% to 15%.

In the fourth quarter, Shopify's net profit was $743 million, or $0.57 per share, down from $1.29 billion, or $0.99 per share, in the same period last year.

Adjusted earnings per share were $0.48. FactSet data shows that analysts had previously expected $0.50 per share.

Revenue rose from $2.81 billion to $3.67 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $3.59 billion.

The platform's gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased from $94.46 billion in the same period last year to $123.84 billion.

Quarterly monthly recurring revenue also rose from $178 million to $205 million.

Free cash flow was $715 million, up from $611 million in the same period last year, while the free cash flow margin fell from 22% to 19%.

The chief financial officer said the company showed strong performance across merchants of all sizes, regions, and channels at the end of 2025, laying a solid foundation for development in 2026.

In recent months, the stock has fallen sharply from last year's high, dropping from about C$253 to C$172.54 as of Tuesday.

This significant decline is consistent with the performance of other software stocks, as investors await clear signs of the impact of artificial intelligence and overall demand conditions.

Editor: He Yun