IEA Monthly Report Lowers Global Crude Oil Demand and Supply Growth Forecasts for 2026

⑴ The IEA monthly report shows that the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026 is 850,000 barrels per day, previously estimated at 930,000 barrels per day. ⑵ In 2026, the total global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day, compared to 3.69 million barrels per day in the previous report. ⑶ Russia's crude oil exports in January decreased by 350,000 barrels per day compared to December, falling to 4.67 million barrels per day. ⑷ Global oil demand is expected to grow by an average of 770,000 barrels per day in 2025. ⑸ The 2026 non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast has been revised down from 1.3 million barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day. ⑹ The total demand in 2026 is expected to average 104.9 million barrels per day. ⑺ Russia's oil and fuel export revenue in January increased to $11.11 billion, up from $10.99 billion in December. ⑻ The 2026 global oil supply growth forecast has been revised down from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day. ⑼ OPEC+ supply in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day. ⑽ Non-OPEC+ production in January declined by 1.1 million barrels per day. ⑾ OPEC+ production in January decreased by 160,000 barrels per day.