Perspective: The Bitcoin Market Sentiment has Entered an Extremely Fragile Stage, With a Potential Deep Bear Trend Looming After a Panic Sell-off

BlockBeats News, February 13th. According to Chinese analyst Murphy, in this current cycle, Bitcoin's LTH-RPRL (Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio) has dropped below 1 for the first time. The last time this occurred was on May 9, 2022. The LTH-SOPR has also simultaneously dropped below 1, indicating that LTHs are not only in an overall loss but are also engaging in continuous loss-selling.

Murphy stated that the current market sentiment has reached an extremely fragile stage, where the typical sentiment is "ignore good news, amplify bad news." During this stage, it is easier to see "an event intensifying panic, leading to LTH sentiment collapse; this is also the final tremor of each bear market." Looking back at history, when LTH-RPRL drops below 1, the probability of BTC initiating a deep bear market mode becomes very high. Note that here, "deep bear" does not refer to a large price drop but rather a long duration of decline.