What Grain Bulls Must Do Now to Sustain Ongoing Price Momentum

Weekly Grain Futures Recap

Last week, March corn futures (ZCH26) edged up by just 1.5 cents. Despite this modest movement, Friday’s strong technical close hinted at the potential for further gains when trading resumes after the extended U.S. holiday. March soybeans (ZSH26) advanced by 17.75 cents over the week. March soybean meal (ZMH26) finished Friday at its highest level in two months, climbing $5.60 for the week. Meanwhile, March bean oil (ZLH26) rose by 175 points. Soft red winter wheat (ZWH26) for March increased by 19 cents, and hard red winter wheat (KEH26) added 11.25 cents during the same period.

Robust Export Demand Supports U.S. Corn

The USDA’s recent decision to raise U.S. corn export projections by 100 million bushels in its February supply and demand update helped ease selling pressure in the futures market.

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Despite the surge in export demand, corn futures have shown only limited enthusiasm. Large domestic inventories, a recent dip in crude oil prices, and technical barriers above current price levels have all contributed to subdued buying activity.

Market participants are closely monitoring Brazil’s second safrinha corn planting, as the optimal window for sowing is closing soon. As spring approaches, attention will gradually shift from South American weather patterns to conditions in the U.S. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report, due in late March, is also expected to be a significant market catalyst.

Soybean Market Gains Momentum

Although soybean futures experienced some light selling and profit-taking on Friday, the market had a strong week overall. Notably, soybean meal futures ended the week with a technically bullish close, providing additional momentum for both soybean and meal bulls as trading resumes after the holiday. Traders in the soybean complex are also paying close attention to wheat futures, which have recently seen notable price increases.

Improving trade relations between the U.S. and China are providing support for the soy complex. President Donald Trump announced plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April, potentially extending the current trade truce. Optimism is growing among soybean bulls that stronger U.S.-China ties could lead to increased Chinese purchases of American soybeans in the near future.

Weather and Global Factors

Soybean traders are also monitoring weather developments in key South American growing regions. While there are some dry patches in Brazil and Argentina, these conditions have not yet reached a level that would trigger a weather-driven rally in soybean prices.

Winter Wheat Bulls Re-Emerge

Winter wheat futures saw some selling pressure and price corrections on Friday, following strong gains earlier in the week. Traders are keeping a close watch on weather patterns in U.S. and global wheat-producing areas. Rainfall is needed in the U.S. hard red winter wheat belt and Canada’s Prairies, while soil moisture has improved in southern Europe and much of France. Recent cold weather in Russia and Ukraine has raised concerns about potential winterkill.

Improved Trade Relations Benefit Wheat Markets

Wheat market optimism has been bolstered by better trade relations between the U.S. and other countries, including recent agreements that promote increased purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

The U.S. dollar index ($DXY) has dropped significantly from its late-2025 peak, making U.S. wheat more competitive globally and supporting stronger international demand.