Gold Mining Stock Rallying Into This Week's Earnings

Newmont Corporation's (NYSE:NEM) fourth-quarter report is due out after the close on Thursday, Feb. 19. Per Zacks Research, analysts anticipate the gold and copper miner will post earnings of $1.81 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion, a year-over-year increase of 29.3% and 2%, respectively. 

On the charts, NEM has been moving back toward its January 29 record high of $134.88 as gold prices rebound. Last seen up 2.7% to trade at $125.60, the shares are enjoying a 164.3% 12-month lead and a 25.7% year-to-date gain. 

Looking back, Newmont stock has a fairly negative post-earnings history, however. Over the last eight quarters, NEM finished only three of those next-day sessions higher. The stock has averaged a 7.8% post-earnings move, regardless of direction, which is slightly lower than the 8.6% swing the options pits are pricing in this time around. 

Newmont stock has tended to outperform options traders' volatility expectations over the past year, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 80 out of 100.