Bitcoin’s Drop to $64,000 Is a ‘Macro Surprise,’ Not a Sign of Market Failure

Bitcoin’s Recent Decline: Analysts Point to Macro Pressures, Not Cycle Failure

Bitcoin’s slide to around $64,000 is being attributed by market experts to a series of macroeconomic shocks and high market leverage, rather than a fundamental breakdown in its long-term cycle.

According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin dropped to $63,822 on Tuesday, marking a 6.4% loss for the week. The cryptocurrency is now trading at about half the value of its record high of $126,080 reached five months ago. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products have seen outflows for five consecutive weeks, as highlighted in a recent report.

This downturn is testing whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle remains valid, or if evolving macroeconomic factors have permanently shifted its path. Analysts emphasize that the causes are rooted in global trade policies, interest rates, and excessive leverage, rather than any flaw in Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

Expert Insights on the Market Drop

Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets, explained to Decrypt that Bitcoin’s fall below $64,000 was not triggered by a single event. Instead, she described it as the culmination of multiple macroeconomic shocks impacting a highly leveraged market since the October 2025 all-time high.

Lucas identified President Trump’s move to increase global tariffs to 15% as a key catalyst, which unsettled risk assets across the board. She noted, “Despite being called ‘digital gold,’ Bitcoin still behaves like a risk asset. When fear rises in the broader market, investors tend to move their capital into traditional safe havens. Bitcoin hasn’t reached that status yet.”

Additional pressure has come from the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off on rate cuts, with CME’s FedWatch tool indicating a 96% probability of no rate reduction. Persistent inflation has reinforced expectations for higher rates to continue, further weighing on risk assets. The increased use of leverage by Bitcoin investors, as previously reported by Decrypt, has also hindered any meaningful recovery.

Macro Factors and ETF Outflows

Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, echoed the view that macroeconomic forces are driving the decline. He told Decrypt that Bitcoin’s price drop reflects a mix of renewed tariff tensions, a general shift away from risk in both equities and crypto, and ongoing negative flows from ETFs, rather than a breakdown in the asset’s underlying structure.

ETF outflows have persisted for five straight weeks, totaling $4 billion, with trading volumes dropping to their lowest levels since July 2025, as previously reported by Decrypt.

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, added that pessimism over potential rate cuts, concerns about a possible U.S. government shutdown, and the impact of tariffs are all contributing to downward pressure. He also suggested that these conditions may force miners to sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover operational costs, as mining rewards are now close to or below production expenses.

Bitcoin's Dip Under $65K Pushes Crypto Liquidations to $500M

Looking Forward: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Lucas observed that discussions around Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have quieted. She explained that if the cycle pattern holds, 2025 would have marked the peak, with 2026 serving as a period of correction and consolidation before the next accumulation phase leading into 2027 and 2028.

Despite the steep 50% decline from its cycle high, Lucas maintains that Bitcoin’s overall trend remains intact, stating that the cryptocurrency is behaving as it has in previous cycles.

Experts told Decrypt that the short-term outlook remains cautious, with the current correction likely to continue. However, they emphasize that Bitcoin’s structural foundation is still solid.

Ruck anticipates that Bitcoin will eventually stabilize in the mid-$60,000 range, followed by a slow recovery. He points out that historical trends show Bitcoin often finds strong support at realized price levels during corrections, before resuming its upward trajectory, driven by its scarcity and increasing institutional interest.

D’Anethan noted that a realized price of $55,000 is “definitely within reach” given the current market uncertainty. He added that once Bitcoin is down 50% from its peak, a further dip below $60,000 may not be significant and could even present a better opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate.