Nvidia FY2026 Q4 Preview: $600B Hyperscaler AI Capex Set to Power Guidance Upside—Can Earnings Reaccelerate?
Investment Highlights at a Glance
Nvidia (NVDA.US) is scheduled to report its FY2026 fourth-quarter earnings after the U.S. market close on February 25 (Wednesday). Wall Street consensus expects revenue of approximately $65.7 billion (+67.0% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $1.52. Although Q3 already delivered $57.01 billion revenue (+62% YoY) and $1.30 EPS, the stock has been essentially flat since August 2025. The market is now laser-focused on management’s confirmation of hyperscalers’ 2026 AI-related capex exceeding $600 billion, as well as whether Q1 FY2027 guidance will be raised to the $71.0–72.0 billion range. This will be the key catalyst to break the consolidation and ignite a new leg higher.

5 Key Focus Areas
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Focus 1: Revenue Scale & Data Center Acceleration
Data Center remains the growth engine; Blackwell ramp is the direct determinant of Q4 upside. Consensus sees Data Center revenue approaching $60 billion. If Blackwell contributes more than expected (some desks forecast ~$9 billion in the quarter), it will confirm AI infrastructure buildout is still in expansion mode, not digestion. Key Metrics: Total revenue $65.7 billion (+67.0% YoY) vs. company Q3 midpoint guidance of $65 billion. Potential Outcomes & Impact: Beat by >$1 billion could trigger an immediate 5–8% stock pop; in-line results risk “sell the news” reaction.
Focus 2: Gross Margin Stability
Gross margin is the key profitability signal—Q3 was 73.6%. Street expects Q4 to hold steady at 73%–75%, with Blackwell cost control as the swing factor. Key Metrics: Non-GAAP gross margin 74.0%–75.0%. Potential Outcomes & Impact: Stable or slight expansion reinforces long-term pricing power; any drop below 73% would raise profitability concerns and pressure the stock.
Focus 3: Q1 FY2027 Guidance Strength
Guidance matters more than the print. Current anchor is $71.0–72.0 billion. A decisive upward revision plus “demand continues to outstrip supply” language would eliminate AI-bubble doubts. Key Metrics: Q1 revenue guidance range and tone (bullish/neutral). Potential Outcomes & Impact: Raise to $73 billion+ could drive shares through $200; in-line or cautious tone likely triggers 5–10% pullback.
Focus 4: Hyperscaler Capex Confirmation
The Big Five (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Oracle) are expected to spend over $600 billion in 2026, the majority on AI infrastructure. Management commentary affirming robust demand would provide powerful validation for the full-year outlook. Key Metrics: Qualitative commentary on 2026–2027 customer demand trends. Potential Outcomes & Impact: Strong confirmation lifts the entire AI complex; any hint of normalization could spark sector-wide rotation.
Risks & Opportunities
Upside Catalysts:
- Blackwell shipments materially beat expectations, proving capacity bottlenecks are easing;
- Q1 guidance raised above $73 billion with bullish 2026 visibility;
- Reaffirmation of long-term 75% gross-margin target.
Downside Risks:
- Guidance merely meets $71–72 billion midpoint with cautious wording;
- Gross margin surprise to the downside or mention of custom-chip pressure;
- Any signal of near-term demand softening, triggering “sell the fact” move.
Trading Strategy Suggestions
Bull Case: Q4 revenue >$66 billion, EPS >$1.55, plus raised Q1 guidance and positive AI demand tone → stock breaks out of consolidation, targeting above $200.
Bear Case: In-line results or weak guidance on elevated valuation → “sell the news” pullback, support zone $180–185.
Must-Watch Numbers:
- Q4 Revenue (consensus $65.7B)
- Adjusted EPS (consensus $1.52)
- Q1 FY2027 Revenue Guidance (consensus $71–72B)
- Non-GAAP Gross Margin (consensus 73%–75%)
Trading Strategy Suggestions
- Pre-earnings: Consider light positioning or holding NVDAUSDT perpetual contracts (up to 100x leverage available) to play for an earnings beat.
- If guidance is strong: Add to longs after the report or at the next open, with a strict 5% stop-loss.
- If guidance meets or misses expectations: Consider trimming longs at highs or hedging with short contract positions.
All strategies must be flexibly adjusted based on real-time volume and volatility. Strictly control position sizing and risk at all times.
Disclaimer: The content above is provided for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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