You covered the costs of tariffs — yet you won’t receive any portion of the tariff reimbursements

Costco Challenges Trump Administration Over Tariff Refunds

Costco has taken legal action against the Trump administration in hopes of speeding up the process for tariff refunds. However, even if the company prevails, shoppers are unlikely to see any of that money, despite having paid higher prices due to the tariffs. Image credit: Stephanie Keith/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Supreme Court Ruling Leaves $134 Billion in Tariff Refunds Uncertain

Following a recent Supreme Court decision that deemed President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs unlawful, the federal government now faces the possibility of returning $134 billion—and counting—in tariff revenue.

But what does this mean for everyday Americans who paid more for goods because of these tariffs?

Will Consumers Get Their Money Back?

In short, almost certainly not.

Consumers paid the tariffs indirectly through higher prices, but they weren’t the ones who sent money to the government. If refunds are issued, they’ll go to the official importers—companies like Costco, Walmart, and Target—who paid the tariffs upfront.

At this point, the idea of refunds remains hypothetical. Neither the Trump administration nor the Supreme Court has provided clear guidance on how the process will unfold. President Trump recently suggested it could take up to five years to resolve.

How Tariffs Impacted Consumers

While businesses absorbed most of the tariff costs, they passed a portion on to shoppers. Research from Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab found that consumers covered about 25% of the tariff expenses through increased prices.

According to the Tax Foundation, tariffs raised the average American household’s tax burden by $1,000 last year.

To address affordability concerns, the Trump administration has floated the idea of $2,000 rebate checks to offset the impact of tariffs on consumers. However, these payments would function more like economic stimulus than direct tariff refunds, and it’s unclear if the Supreme Court’s decision affects their future.

Ultimately, since most consumers didn’t pay tariffs directly, they aren’t eligible for refunds from the government.

Don’t Expect Businesses to Pass Refunds to Shoppers

Costco is among thousands of companies that filed lawsuits against the U.S. government seeking tariff refunds before the Supreme Court’s decision. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently remarked that Costco’s customers are unlikely to benefit from any refunds the company receives. Other major corporations, such as FedEx, have also begun legal action following the ruling.

While nothing legally stops companies from sharing refunds with customers, it’s improbable. Businesses have likely spent significant sums on legal fees and absorbed most of the tariff costs themselves, making customer payouts unlikely.

Possible Relief for Consumers

There may be other ways consumers benefit. For example, David Suk, CEO of The Baby’s Brew, a portable bottle warmer company, doubts he’ll see any of the $80,000 his business paid in tariffs since the policy began. Still, if he does receive a refund, he plans to reduce prices for his customers.

Any refund would only cover a portion of the overall tariff-related expenses, since businesses also incurred extra costs to speed up production and stockpile inventory ahead of tariff hikes.

“It’s impossible to return refunds to customers dollar for dollar. As much as I’d like to, it just isn’t realistic,” Suk told CNN. His company manufactures all its products in China, and as tariffs on Chinese goods dropped last year, he responded by lowering prices.

“Business owners have to make tough decisions to stay afloat and keep their customers satisfied,” he added.