US economic growth: AI-related imports counteract investment gains – TD Securities

Impact of Artificial Intelligence on US Economic Performance in Q4 2025

Eli Nir, US Macro Strategist at TD Securities, examines the influence of Artificial Intelligence on the United States' GDP during the fourth quarter of 2025. While robust AI-fueled fixed investment boosted Private Domestic Final Purchases, a notable increase in imports of computers and semiconductors weighed down the overall GDP figure. The analysis suggests that, in the absence of the AI investment surge, fixed investment would have declined and GDP growth would have been more subdued.

AI Alters the Structure of US Economic Growth

• According to estimates, AI-related activities reduced Q4 GDP growth by nearly 0.6 percentage points, resulting in a headline annualized rate of 1.4%. The positive impact of AI-driven fixed investment was counterbalanced by a sharp rise in imports of technology hardware.
• AI continues to underpin investment trends. Without the AI investment boom, fixed investment would have likely fallen by 1.3% in Q4, compared to the actual increase of 2.6%. For the entirety of 2025, AI is believed to have contributed to 87% of fixed investment growth.
• The fourth quarter saw the largest AI-related boost to fixed investment growth (+0.7 percentage points) since the start of these assessments.
• However, the quarter was also marked by a surge in AI-related imports—especially computers and semiconductors—which subtracted 1.3 percentage points from Q4 GDP. The share of total goods imports made up by computers and semiconductors jumped to 16.3% in Q4 2025, up from 7.5% in 2023.
• Overall, AI’s net effect on GDP growth for 2025 was essentially neutral, as the late-year spike in imports offset earlier quarters where AI investment outpaced import growth.

(This report was produced with the assistance of an AI tool and subsequently reviewed by an editor.)