As of February 24, 2026, the Bitcoin market is confronting a stark new reality: According to Glassnode, the “Realized Profit/Loss Ratio” has now fallen below the pivotal level of 1, indicating that more investors are selling at a loss than at a profit. This shift recalls the deep bear markets of 2018 and 2022, signaling evaporating liquidity and the mounting risk of widespread capitulation. Since peaking in October 2025, Bitcoin—the world’s largest cryptocurrency—has shed around 50% of its value, pressured by a mix of macroeconomic headwinds and ominous technical “death cross” signals that mark a crucial turning point for the digital asset.
On-Chain Data Confirms Bearish Dominance
Glassnode’s analytics highlight a marked transformation in market dynamics: the Bitcoin network is now locked in a cycle of “loss realization.” The fact that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio has dropped below 1 underscores a significant deterioration in investor sentiment. Historically, such periods tend to persist for at least six months, with a market recovery contingent on the return of liquidity and capital flows into the ecosystem.
This market upheaval is not just impacting retail investors. The so-called “whales”—holders of large Bitcoin wallets—have also felt the sting. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the profitability of these big players has fallen back to levels last seen during the 2022 downturn. This parallel suggests the market could be entering the grueling final phase before eventually bottoming out. After attempting the $96,000 mark in January, Bitcoin’s slide to $63,200 has triggered a wave of panic selling that is now spreading to institutional circles as well.
Early signals of liquidity drying up became evident when daily profits, which exceeded $1 billion in December 2025, plunged to just $183 million. The fleeting rebound that briefly followed soon gave way to an even more aggressive sell-off. Rather than trying to preserve their portfolios, investors have rushed to liquidate positions, making capital outflows glaringly obvious across all key blockchain metrics.
Macroeconomic Pressures and the Looming Death Cross
Pressure on Bitcoin is being fueled not only by internal market dynamics but also by global political turbulence. Statements by U.S. President Donald Trump about raising global import tariffs have sharply curtailed investor risk appetite. The resulting uncertainty has driven an exodus from volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies, causing Bitcoin to lose 29% of its value in just the past month. The turmoil in conventional financial markets has forced the crypto ecosystem to adopt a markedly defensive stance.
On the technical front, experts such as Ali Martinez are sounding the alarm over a three-day “death cross” formation—where the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term average—a pattern with a grim history. Similar technical signals in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were followed by additional price drops ranging from 30% to 50%. Should this pattern be confirmed by the end of February, a deeper correction could be in the cards for Bitcoin, maintaining the current climate of caution and uncertainty.
Despite this bleak outlook, some industry figures point to reasons for optimism. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, for example, characterizes the current turmoil as Bitcoin’s “adolescence.” According to this perspective, episodes of speculative shakeout are necessary steps for the asset to mature at the institutional level. Long-term cycle trends, these experts argue, have not yet been broken, though in the near term, any recovery hinges on both a more favorable macro environment and the key on-chain ratios returning above the critical threshold of 1.
