Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD maintains its advance around $5,200 as US-Iran strains and trade doubts persist

Gold Prices Climb Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

During Wednesday's European session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) advanced by 0.6%, approaching $5,200. This upward movement is fueled by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran regarding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, as well as ongoing ambiguity in US trade policy. These factors have heightened the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Assets like gold often see increased demand when geopolitical risks intensify.

Focus on US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming nuclear discussions between the US and Iran, set for Thursday, to gauge future developments in the Middle East. In the lead-up to these talks, US President Donald Trump has issued strong warnings, threatening military action against Tehran if it continues its nuclear program. On Monday, Trump used Truth.Social to caution that failure to reach an agreement would have severe consequences for Iran and its citizens.

US Trade Policy Developments

In the United States, a Supreme Court decision overturning additional tariffs imposed by Washington has disrupted the current trade policy outlook. The Court ruled that President Trump had overstepped his authority by leveraging emergency economic powers to support his tariff strategy.

Despite this setback, President Trump has introduced a 10% global tariff in response to the ruling, with the possibility of raising it to 15%. He has also indicated that higher tariffs could be imposed if other countries fail to honor trade agreements. Nevertheless, investors remain concerned that these developments may prompt calls for renegotiating existing deals.

Technical Overview: Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is currently trading near $5,200, maintaining a bullish short-term outlook. The price continues to follow an upward support trend line that began around $4,400 and remains well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $5,010. This pattern of higher lows along the trend line supports the ongoing uptrend, despite recent market swings, while the cluster of EMAs beneath the price highlights persistent buying interest during pullbacks.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding around 60, indicating ongoing positive momentum and suggesting that the market is not yet overextended after easing from previous overbought levels.

• Support Levels: The first support lies near the trend line at $5,120, followed by the 20-day EMA at $5,010, and then the recent swing low at $4,880. A drop below this zone could undermine the bullish outlook and lead to deeper corrections toward $4,750.
• Resistance Levels: Initial resistance is found at the recent high of $5,240. A daily close above this threshold could pave the way for a move toward the $5,380 area. As long as gold remains above the EMA and the rising trend line, any declines are likely to attract buyers within the prevailing uptrend.

(This technical analysis was prepared with the assistance of an AI tool.)