Analysis: Bitcoin recovery is still hindered by ETF outflows and strategic selling by large holders, with strong market caution prevailing

According to Odaily, a report from a certain exchange indicates that the bitcoin market has recently been fluctuating within the $65,000–$70,000 range in the short term, but the long-term trend remains downward. Since reaching an all-time high last October, there has been a significant correction of over 52%. Although there has been a rebound of about 20% from the February 5 low, this week’s price is still below the lower end of the range and is testing new lows. Macroeconomic uncertainty has intensified, especially after the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Trump administration’s tariff increases. Precious metals such as gold and silver have rebounded, while crypto market traders continue to pay a premium for downside protection. The Exchange Whale Ratio shows that recent bitcoin inflows to exchanges are mainly from large holders. Such concentrated inflows usually indicate strategic selling rather than short-term forced liquidations or retail sell-offs. Large holders may sell at key structural levels or during daily fixed periods, reflecting intentional market positioning. Last week, the options market reduced downside protection for the first time, but influenced by the tariff news, traders did not increase long positions and only adjusted for extreme tail risks. Short-term contract trading data shows that market sentiment is cautious rather than optimistic.