Analysts Predict Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Will See Lower Profits: Key Points to Watch

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Earnings Preview: What to Expect

Market analysts anticipate that Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) will report lower earnings and reduced revenue for the quarter ending December 2025. While this consensus forecast is widely recognized, the actual results compared to these projections could play a significant role in determining the stock’s short-term movement.

If AFCG’s reported figures surpass expectations in the upcoming earnings announcement, scheduled for March 4, the stock could see upward momentum. Conversely, results that fall short may lead to a decline in share price.

Ultimately, the direction of the stock after the report will also depend on management’s commentary and outlook during the earnings call. However, it’s useful to consider the likelihood of an earnings per share (EPS) surprise.

Current Consensus Estimates

For the upcoming quarter, AFCG is projected to post a net loss of $0.04 per share, representing a year-over-year decrease of 113.8%.

Revenue is forecasted at $5.39 million, which would be a 41.5% drop compared to the same period last year.

Recent Estimate Revisions

Over the past month, the consensus EPS estimate for AFCG has been reduced by 150%. This adjustment reflects a collective reassessment by analysts covering the company.

It’s important to note that the overall change in estimates may not always align with the direction of each individual analyst’s revision.

Understanding Earnings ESP

Changes in analyst estimates ahead of earnings releases can provide insight into a company’s business environment. The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model is designed to capture this information.

The Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter. Since the Most Accurate Estimate is updated more recently, it may better reflect the latest information available to analysts.

A positive or negative ESP reading suggests the potential for actual earnings to differ from consensus expectations. However, the model is most effective when the ESP is positive.

Historically, stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold) have delivered an earnings beat nearly 70% of the time. A strong Zacks Rank further increases the predictive value of the ESP.

It’s worth noting that a negative ESP does not necessarily predict an earnings miss. For stocks with a negative ESP or a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell), forecasting an earnings beat becomes much less reliable.

How Do AFCG’s Numbers Stack Up?

For Advanced Flower Capital Inc., the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the consensus, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +25.00%. This indicates that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company’s earnings potential.

However, AFCG currently holds a Zacks Rank of #4, which tempers confidence in a potential earnings beat this quarter.

Given this combination, it’s challenging to predict with certainty that AFCG will outperform consensus EPS expectations.

Does Past Performance Offer Any Hints?

Analysts often look at a company’s track record of meeting or exceeding consensus estimates when forecasting future results. Reviewing AFCG’s recent history can provide context for the upcoming report.

In the previous quarter, AFCG was expected to earn $0.19 per share but reported $0.16, missing estimates by 15.79%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has not managed to surpass consensus EPS projections.

Key Takeaways

Whether a stock rises or falls after earnings isn’t solely determined by beating or missing estimates. Other factors, such as unexpected developments or investor sentiment, can also influence price movement.

That said, focusing on stocks likely to exceed earnings expectations can improve investment outcomes. Checking a company’s Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank before earnings releases can help identify promising opportunities.

At this time, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat. Investors should also consider other factors before deciding to buy or avoid the stock ahead of its earnings release.