Report: Russia Considers Lowering 2026 GDP Forecast Due to Shrinking Oil Revenues

Russian officials are considering reducing the benchmark oil price in the budget rule to $45-50 per barrel. Policymakers are beginning to accept the reality that oil prices may remain at the $40 level for a long time. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that, in the face of the largest crude oil discount in nearly three years, the government must quickly tighten the budget rule to prevent the National Welfare Fund (NWF) from being depleted. Due to Western sanctions, the discount of Russian Urals crude oil relative to Brent crude oil widened to $30.62 per barrel last week. (Bloomberg)