Gold’s bull run is considered to be only halfway through and may climb to $6,750 by the U.S. Midterm Elections, according to MKS PAMP.

Gold’s Bull Market: Still in Early Stages, Analyst Says

Gold has climbed back to $5,200 per ounce, though it remains below the record highs set in January near $5,600. As the market consolidates, some investors are questioning whether gold’s upward trend can continue. However, one analyst believes that, when compared to previous cycles, the current bull market is still in its early phases.

Historical Perspective on Gold’s Performance

Nicky Shiels, Head of Research and Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, recently examined the last five major gold bull markets over the past half-century. She noted that both gold and silver have the potential to move higher this year, given current trends. This bull run has lasted 39 months so far, with gold appreciating over 200%, silver rising about 350%, and the U.S. dollar weakening by 13%.

“Compared to history, this is a mid-cycle performance. If gold were to match the average length and returns of past cycles, prices could reach $6,750 by October, around the time of the U.S. midterm elections,” Shiels commented.

Unique Drivers in Today’s Market

While traditional factors such as lower interest rates, global tensions, economic uncertainty, and a softer dollar continue to support precious metals, Shiels highlighted additional elements that set this cycle apart.

She pointed out that the current macroeconomic environment is shaped by significant structural changes. Government finances worldwide are more fragile than in previous cycles, with high debt levels and ongoing deficits contributing to what many call “fiscal dominance.”

Additionally, the U.S. faces deeper political divisions, global wealth gaps have widened, and China’s economic influence now far exceeds that of past U.S. rivals like the Soviet Union. In this context, gold has moved beyond its traditional relationship with real interest rates and is increasingly seen as a broad hedge against systemic risks.

Central Banks and Retail Investors Fuel Demand

Central banks continue to play a crucial role in supporting gold prices, with their ongoing net purchases helping to establish higher price floors.

“Emerging market central banks still have significant ground to cover: the top 20 EM holders possess around 7,500 tonnes of gold, but reaching developed market averages would require 22,000 tonnes—equivalent to six years of global primary supply,” Shiels explained.

On the retail side, the market has become more diverse. Strong physical demand is evident in outlets like Costco, and there’s growing interest in gold-backed digital tokens. Fractional ownership is making it possible for a wider range of investors to participate in the gold market.

Institutional Investment and the Dollar’s Role

Despite these trends, Shiels noted that institutional investors still have relatively low exposure to gold.

Looking forward, she suggested that further weakness in the U.S. dollar could provide additional support for gold prices. “The dollar’s decline so far has been modest—just 13%—leaving room for further depreciation if new catalysts arise,” she said.

Shiels also indicated that gold may continue to outperform silver in the near term.

Silver’s Cycle and Potential Risks

“Silver’s current trajectory resembles the 2008-2011 period, with a 360% gain over 33 months, suggesting that silver’s cycle may be closer to its peak,” she observed.

As for what could halt gold’s momentum, Shiels identified several risks: an improvement in global political stability, a stronger U.S. dollar, or a shift in American fiscal policy could all present challenges for gold’s upward movement.