thecryptobasic.com 
$XRP could soon initiate the rally for its current Phase 4 wave, as targets push to as high as $21.5, aligning with a key Fibonacci extension.
The broader crypto market has found some relief from the current downtrend, and $XRP has leveraged this upward push to record some mild gains. While up 9.4% since yesterday, market data suggests that the real rally has still not materialized.
Notably, $XRP currently trades in the fourth stage of a 4-phase market cycle, which began as far back as mid-2017. This Phase 4 typically features rapid upward swings, and $XRP eyes $21.5 as its ultimate target for when the real upsurge finally begins.
Key Points
- $XRP has hopped on the latest market-wide recovery effort, posting a 9.4% gain since yesterday, as the price holds above $1.45.
- Despite the recent upward push, market data shows the real rally has still not materialized.
- $XRP currently trades within the fourth stage of a 4-phase cycle that began in mid-2017, when it soared to $0.38 and faced resistance.
- Historical data indicates that Phase 4 often features rapid price upswings, and $XRP could rally to $21.5 if the pattern holds.
$XRP Phase 4 Rally About to Begin
This structure was recently highlighted by CW, a prominent market analyst, amid the ongoing market rebound push. For context, the broader crypto market recovered a whopping $134 billion in global valuation yesterday alone, as the global market cap rose 6.12%.
$XRP hopped on this uptrend to post a 6.36% rise yesterday. It has since extended the rally to this morning, compounding the gains to 9% since yesterday. With the ongoing relief bounce, CW recently suggested that $XRP’s Phase 4 rally had still not materialized, but was on the verge of starting. According to him, an $XRP trend reversal signal is now imminent.
Data from the accompanying chart shows that $XRP is still currently seeing a red 3-week candlestick, but the loss has so far drastically reduced to just -0.52%. CW insisted that this candlestick would soon flip green as $XRP continues to record gains, potentially marking the first green 3-week candlestick since mid-January and the second one this year.
According to him, amid the appearance of a green 3-week candlestick, the sub-indicator on the chart, which resembles a momentum oscillator, could soon record a golden cross. He believes these factors would lead to the imminent Phase 4 upsurge. “The real rally of Phase 4 is about to begin,” he remarked.
The 4-Phase Market Cycle
Notably, further chart data confirms that the current 4-phase market cycle actually began as far back as May 2017, after $XRP faced a roadblock at $0.39.
Specifically, the correction that followed the $0.39 roadblock marked the start of Phase 1, with a consolidation that lasted for six months. Following the consolidation, $XRP soared to $3.3 by January 2018, leading to the end of Phase 1.
Phase 2 began after $XRP dropped from the $3.3 peak, dropped to a bottom of $0.1140 by March 2020, and then recovered to a high of $1.96 by April 2021. This $1.96 top marked the end of Phase 2. After this, Phase 3 began with a pullback from $1.96 and ended as $XRP traded around a range of $0.5 and $0.6 in November 2024.
Meanwhile, the current Phase 4 started when $XRP recovered from the $0.5 to $0.6 range, and soared to $3.4 by January 2025. After a pullback, $XRP rallied again to $3.6 by July 2025 before correcting again. The correction has led to $XRP’s current downtrend.
Upside Targets
Despite the downtrend, data shows that $XRP remains within Phase 4, which represents a bullish stage for the token. CW now believes that after months of seeing lower highs and lower lows, $XRP may be on the verge of engineering the Phase 4 rally.
According to him, the first target for this rally sits at the all-time high price of around $3.6, attained in July 2025. This would mark the first hurdle to the upside push and end Phase 4. After breaching this area, CW expects $XRP to rally to the second target of $21.5 in Phase 1 of the new cycle, which aligns with the rare Fibonacci level around 6.618.
