Analyst: Indicators show that the current market sentiment is far from reaching the typical bottoming-out region of past cycles
BlockBeats News, February 26th, Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel published a report on social media stating that CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin's "MVRV Z-Score" is currently -2.28, dropping below the bear market bottoms of 2018 (-1.6) and 2022 (-1.4), entering a "strong bear" zone.
The MVRV Z-Score is a standardized deviation value of market value relative to realized value; a negative value indicates that the market price is below on-chain "fair value."
Axel explained that this anomaly can be attributed to the scale of realized value in the ETF era, where a large amount of institutional capital inflow has raised the cost basis, making the Z-Score more sensitive to price adjustments. If the Z-Score rebounds above -1.5 and the price holds above $65,000, it will be the first technical confirmation signal to exit the pressure zone.
However, the NUPL indicator, which measures market sentiment, is currently at 0.197, still in the "hope" zone, far from reaching the surrender zone historically seen at cycle bottoms. During a true surrender phase (December 2018, March 2020, November 2022), NUPL would drop into the negative territory, with the majority of holders experiencing net losses. The current 0.197 is in the middle of the historical range, still far from the true pain zone. The data indicates a weakening market sentiment, but not yet panic. Most participants are still in unrealized profits (NUPL> 0), but confidence has significantly wavered.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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