Exchange Research Institute: Market Concerns About AI Disrupting Software May Be Overstated, Bitcoin Approaching Structural Bottom

PANews, February 26 – According to the latest weekly report from a certain exchange research institute, the initial increase in uncertainty caused by the U.S. Supreme Court's tariff ruling appears to have a rather limited direct impact based on quantitative analysis, and the market may have exaggerated the downside risks to inflation and economic fundamentals. Concerns about AI disrupting software may be overstated. Once software stocks form a lasting bottom, the mechanical linkage between tech stocks and bitcoin will fade. This week, Nvidia's earnings report and Anthropic's enterprise partnership updates may serve as early signals in this direction. Currently, bitcoin and global M2 money supply are experiencing the longest and largest divergence in history, stemming from three major structural distortions: a weakening dollar mechanically boosts the nominal value of M2 through exchange rate conversion; the approval of spot ETFs has led institutions to classify bitcoin and software stocks under the same high-volatility tech factor; and persistently high real interest rates have made money market funds a competitive alternative to risk assets. The convergence of this divergence requires three conditions: stabilization of tech stocks, a decline in real interest rates, and a stable dollar, which may be achieved between the second half of 2026 and early 2027.

Multiple technical indicators point to the market approaching a structural bottom: the realized profit and loss ratio has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2023, leverage has rebounded to November highs, and defensive option positions have reached their most extreme levels since the FTX collapse. Fourth quarter 13F holdings data show that price-sensitive capital (investment advisors, banks, hedge funds) had a net sale of about 34,000 BTC, while long-term institutional capital (governments, holding companies, private equity) continued to increase their holdings.