Who stands to receive Trump tariff reimbursements? Businesses, not individual buyers

The Aftermath of Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariffs

Nearly a year has passed since President Donald Trump introduced sweeping global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Since then, the landscape has been marked by a flurry of changing announcements—varying by country—regarding tariff rates, product categories, implementation dates, and a host of exceptions, reversals, and new guidelines.

As these details shifted, U.S. Customs and Border Protection released updated instructions, sometimes lagging behind the official announcements by days or weeks. Businesses involved in importing and exporting scrambled to adjust pricing, renegotiate contracts, and time their shipments to keep up with the ever-changing rules. Meanwhile, investors recalibrated stock values to account for the new costs. While legal experts and scholars debated the legitimacy of the tariffs, individual companies worked to minimize the financial impact and communicate these changes to stakeholders. At the same time, the Federal Reserve, economists, and government analysts rushed to assess the tariffs' effect on inflation.

Legal Battles and Uncertainty

The situation has now grown even more complex. Following a recent Supreme Court decision declaring many tariffs unlawful, over 1,800 companies have already filed lawsuits seeking refunds, according to The Wall Street Journal. However, the legal process remains murky. Cases are flooding into the Court of International Trade in New York, where corporate legal teams are pushing for quick repayment with interest. Smaller businesses, many lacking the resources for legal representation, are also hoping to recover their money.

Experts in trade law anticipate a surge of additional claims, likening the situation to the massive asbestos lawsuits of previous decades—except this time, the process is unfolding much faster.

Challenges in Securing Refunds

Another layer of difficulty arises from the fact that tariff revenues were deposited into the Treasury’s general fund rather than a dedicated account. This means that processing refunds will require close coordination between the courts, Customs, and the Treasury Department. Trump has indicated that legal disputes over refunds could drag on for up to five years.

Consumers Unlikely to Benefit

It appears improbable that American shoppers will see any direct refunds. This is because importers—such as manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, and logistics firms—paid the tariffs when goods entered the country. Although consumers ultimately bore much of the cost, there is no straightforward legal path for them to receive compensation.

Lingering Economic Effects

In summary, while the tariffs increased costs throughout the economy, determining who will actually receive refunds is proving to be as complicated as the tariffs’ initial rollout. Furthermore, research from Goldman Sachs indicates that tariff-driven inflation is likely to persist, even as some of the unlawful tariffs are rescinded, suggesting that higher prices may be here to stay.