小摩策略师：2025年“迷雾重重”，美联储恐暂停降息！

On November 15, Financial Association reported (Editor: Huang Junzhi) that Karen Ward, chief market strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, stated that the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts after December to evaluate the impact of President-elect Donald Trump's policies on the economy.

Ward stated on Thursday, "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is somewhat puzzled about the outlook for 2025. It remains to be seen whether these (Trump's) policies will lead to more growth or more inflation, but our basic expectation is: the Federal Reserve will cut rates once more and then possibly remain inactive in 2025."

It is worth mentioning that Powell's latest speech severely impacted rate cut expectations. He stated during a dialogue with local business leaders hosted by the Dallas Federal Reserve on Thursday that due to the recent performance of the US economy being "very strong", the Federal Reserve does not need to "rush" to lower interest rates and will carefully monitor to ensure that certain inflation indicators remain within acceptable ranges.

"The economy has not conveyed any signals indicating a need to rush to lower interest rates, and the better economic conditions allow us to be cautious in our decision-making," he said.

Ward's viewpoint is a divergence from the mainstream view, as most economists on Wall Street expect that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates next year.

In addition to him, strategists at TD Securities, led by Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg, also expect that as central bank policymakers assess the impact of Trump's policies, the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in the first half of 2025.

The Federal Reserve significantly cut rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting and then lowered the benchmark rate by an additional 25 basis points last week. According to the cme FedWatch Tool, the market currently expects a probability of about 58% for another 25 basis point cut next month.

On the previous day, JPMorgan's Chief Global Market Strategist David Kelly warned that President Trump's radical tariff plan could slow down the global economy and put upward pressure on inflation in the USA. A conflict between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration could ultimately occur, as Trump's policies may not align with the direction of monetary policy.

"The Federal Reserve will not assume, speculate, or predict what tariffs or fiscal policies will be. At some point, they will have to clash, but I think they do not want to bring this issue to light right now," he stated.

Ward believes that the prospects for fiscal expansion in the USA and higher inflation should drive the performance of Nordic government bonds.

Editor / jayden